The good news: Scientists in Ottawa have a plan to deal with a zombie plague. The bad news: Things don't look good for humankind.

The newly published analysis, "When Zombies Attack!: Mathematical Modelling of an Outbreak of Zombie Infection," (PDF, Adobe Acrobat required to view) concludes that "an outbreak of zombies infecting humans is likely to be disastrous, unless extremely aggressive tactics are employed against the undead."

There's more to this marriage of silver screen and ivory tower than mere whimsy. Lead researcher Robert Smith? (who spells his otherwise common name with a diacritical question mark to help differentiate it) concedes that the world probably doesn't need a literal model of the spread of zombie-ism, but the principles it illustrates are being used to fight monstrous real-world diseases like swine flu and HIV.

A creative response from Smith?'s students to an assignment on infectious-disease modeling, the zombie paper outlines the accepted approach for predicting the behavior of a new disease. First, model the basic biology and mechanics. “Zombification,” as canonized in the classic film Night of the Living Dead and its progeny, has symptoms (rotting flesh, discolored eyes, open wounds, walking with small irregular steps) and a known method of transmission (saliva from a zombie bite). Second, add complexities (such as a latent period between the bite and full zombification, quarantine efforts, and a possible cure). After adding each new complication, assess its impact and refine the equation.

When Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) appeared for the first time, in 2003, or after this year's outbreak of swine flu, mathematical modelers could act quickly alongside slower and more costly clinical trials. They could then share insight from their calculations with the biologists working directly with the disease. "You may be wrong, and often you are wrong," Smith? says. "But the idea is not to be right. The idea is to be useful." Models can help other investigators tailor clinical efforts, providing breakthrough perspective.

Ronald Ross won a Nobel Prize at the turn of the 20th century for his work modeling the spread of malaria, and the practice of treating HIV with a three-drug cocktail also sprung in part from math-focused thought experiments. Nowadays, biologists and mathematicians are working together more and more often, gathering together at conferences, publishing side by side in journals, and establishing interdisciplinary centers at major universities. Smith? points to a steep learning curve on both sides, with mathematicians having to learn the language of biology, and biologists having to get over their math phobia.

At least it's not as scary as a flesh-eating zombie.

—Brad Scriber

Photo: Wizards of the Coast LLC

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